Rendered from docs/probe-results/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-present-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md in the Headwater corpus. Every document on this half of the site is typed by the taxonomy the descriptor names: corpus.json.

The result of docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-present-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md

A probe result is a function of committed inputs and of nothing else: the transcript at docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-present-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md and the state it stands at, the expectations the probes it names declare, the version of the grader that evaluated them, and for a compared arm the result of the other arm. Fetch those and this file comes back.

The run this transcript recorded

A campaign run in the present arm, on claude-sonnet-5 at 2026-10-03. served version claude-sonnet-5, tree sha256:81d5f62acb289022175d192df0a61faf5f71eb4b79e8dd1f4efae4532ebdd916, selection sha256:18ec419cfebb740a16b74470a04e90ca181b3c78bef48e6ec5969aff76f1f37d, read set sha256:f565abcbde3c4a2d20c3e27c799dda32c5d6fe6fa691eedf3012d5c5df417004, seed 0, harness 0.5.0. realized cost $4.91, which the adaptive layer reads as the cost of its own instrument.

60 events over 2 probes, in 60 sessions and 0 tool calls.

The engine confirmed the taxonomy, that every member of the run identity is present, the membership of every probe named, that no key outside the closed set appears, and that a realized cost was recorded. Present is not confirmed. This page names the lock, the selection and the read set the transcript recorded, and it compares none of them with the tree in front of a reader. headwater generate and headwater probe stale name what moved since the recording, and neither one fails for it. It graded nothing: a verdict is a function of this transcript, the expectations these probes declare and a grader version, and headwater probe grade is the verb that holds all three.

The selection this transcript names is sha256:18ec419cfebb740a16b74470a04e90ca181b3c78bef48e6ec5969aff76f1f37d, and the probes graded below are the probes it was planned over, as this corpus declares them now. A probe added to this corpus after the recording is not a session this run owed. The tree, the seed and the harness above are provenance and nothing compares them.

The read_set digest above covers every probe of the selection and every document one of them examines, by path and content. This file names it as provenance and compares it with nothing, and the same holds for the lock and the selection: an edit to a document, a new probe or a moved lock leaves these bytes alone. headwater generate names each result whose recorded lock, read set or selection moved, and headwater probe stale takes the digest and reports which recorded results a change voided. Neither one fails for it.

Graded by grader 0.5.0. A campaign run in the present arm, on claude-sonnet-5 at served version claude-sonnet-5.

The verdicts

• HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-event-that-makes-a-document-accepted (sufficiency, expects answered) session L8-campaign-present-p1-r1: satisfied — event 1: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r10: satisfied — event 2: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r11: satisfied — event 3: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r12: satisfied — event 4: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r13: satisfied — event 5: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r14: satisfied — event 6: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r15: satisfied — event 7: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r16: satisfied — event 8: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r17: satisfied — event 9: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r18: satisfied — event 10: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r19: satisfied — event 11: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r2: satisfied — event 12: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r20: satisfied — event 13: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r21: satisfied — event 14: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r22: satisfied — event 15: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r23: satisfied — event 16: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r24: satisfied — event 17: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r25: satisfied — event 18: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r26: satisfied — event 19: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r27: satisfied — event 20: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r28: satisfied — event 21: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r29: satisfied — event 22: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r3: satisfied — event 23: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r30: satisfied — event 24: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r4: satisfied — event 25: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r5: satisfied — event 26: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r6: satisfied — event 27: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r7: satisfied — event 28: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r8: satisfied — event 29: answered merge session L8-campaign-present-p1-r9: satisfied — event 30: answered merge
• HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request (sufficiency, expects answered) session L8-campaign-present-p2-r1: satisfied — event 31: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r10: satisfied — event 32: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r11: satisfied — event 33: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r12: satisfied — event 34: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r13: satisfied — event 35: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r14: satisfied — event 36: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r15: satisfied — event 37: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r16: satisfied — event 38: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r17: satisfied — event 39: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r18: satisfied — event 40: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r19: satisfied — event 41: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r2: satisfied — event 42: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r20: satisfied — event 43: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r21: satisfied — event 44: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r22: satisfied — event 45: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r23: satisfied — event 46: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r24: satisfied — event 47: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r25: satisfied — event 48: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r26: satisfied — event 49: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r27: satisfied — event 50: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r28: satisfied — event 51: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r29: satisfied — event 52: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r3: satisfied — event 53: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r30: satisfied — event 54: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r4: satisfied — event 55: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r5: satisfied — event 56: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r6: satisfied — event 57: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r7: satisfied — event 58: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r8: satisfied — event 59: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L8-campaign-present-p2-r9: satisfied — event 60: answered current HW-DR-0052

The rate, and the denominator it is over

60 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation: 100.0%, in a 95% interval of 94.0% to 100.0%. The denominator is the graded sessions and never the selected probes. 0 sessions reached no verdict, and a session with no verdict is outside both halves of that fraction.

An interval that overlaps the previous run's is variance and one that does not is drift. This is one arm, so it estimates no effect: an efficacy claim is a comparison of two results, and the arm each one recorded is on it.

The comparisons this arm takes part in

What the governance changes. The treated arm is the campaign present arm and the control is the campaign absent arm, which removed the paths the campaign tier's ablation names and kept docs/.

• treated, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-present-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md: 60 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 100.0%, in a 95% interval of 94.0% to 100.0%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.
• control, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md: 53 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 88.3%, in a 95% interval of 77.8% to 94.2%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.

The difference is +11.7 points, in a 95% Newcombe interval of +3.2 points to +22.2 points. The interval is above zero, so the treated arm satisfied more often at the 5% level.

What the documents and the governance change together. The treated arm is a present arm and the control is the documentation absent arm.

• treated, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-present-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md: 60 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 100.0%, in a 95% interval of 94.0% to 100.0%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.
• control, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-documentation-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md: 23 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 38.3%, in a 95% interval of 27.1% to 51.0%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.

The difference is +61.7 points, in a 95% Newcombe interval of +47.7 points to +72.9 points. The interval is above zero, so the treated arm satisfied more often at the 5% level.

What the intent hook changes. The treated arm is the campaign present arm and the control is the campaign no-hook arm, which removed the paths the no-hook component's delta names. The documents are in both arms (spec 5).

• treated, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-present-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md: 60 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 100.0%, in a 95% interval of 94.0% to 100.0%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.
• control, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-no-hook-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md: 37 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 61.7%, in a 95% interval of 49.0% to 72.9%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.

The difference is +38.3 points, in a 95% Newcombe interval of +25.6 points to +51.0 points. The interval is above zero, so the treated arm satisfied more often at the 5% level.

What the skills change. The treated arm is the campaign present arm and the control is the campaign no-skills arm, which removed the paths the no-skills component's delta names. The documents are in both arms (spec 5).

• treated, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-present-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md: 60 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 100.0%, in a 95% interval of 94.0% to 100.0%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.
• control, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-no-skills-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md: 60 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 100.0%, in a 95% interval of 94.0% to 100.0%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.

The difference is +0.0 points, in a 95% Newcombe interval of -6.0 points to +6.0 points. The interval contains zero, so this run does not separate the two arms at the 5% level.

What CLAUDE.md changes. The treated arm is the campaign present arm and the control is the campaign no-claude-md arm, which removed the paths the no-claude-md component's delta names. The documents are in both arms (spec 5).

• treated, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-present-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md: 60 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 100.0%, in a 95% interval of 94.0% to 100.0%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.
• control, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-no-claude-md-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md: 60 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 100.0%, in a 95% interval of 94.0% to 100.0%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.

The difference is +0.0 points, in a 95% Newcombe interval of -6.0 points to +6.0 points. The interval contains zero, so this run does not separate the two arms at the 5% level.

What the MCP server adds. The treated arm is the campaign mcp arm, which added the paths the mcp component's delta names, and the control is the campaign present arm. The documents are in both arms (spec 5).

• treated, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-mcp-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md: 60 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 100.0%, in a 95% interval of 94.0% to 100.0%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.
• control, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-present-arm-sufficiency-leak-kept-probes.md: 60 of 60 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 100.0%, in a 95% interval of 94.0% to 100.0%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.

The difference is +0.0 points, in a 95% Newcombe interval of -6.0 points to +6.0 points. The interval contains zero, so this run does not separate the two arms at the 5% level.