Rendered from docs/probe-results/campaign-of-2026-09-30-documentation-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency.md in the Headwater corpus. Every document on this half of the site is typed by the taxonomy the descriptor names: corpus.json.

The result of docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-09-30-documentation-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency.md

A probe result is a function of three committed inputs and of nothing else: the transcript at docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-09-30-documentation-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency.md, the expectations the probes of this corpus declare, and the version of the grader that evaluated them. Fetch the three and this file comes back.

The run this transcript recorded

A documentation run in the absent arm, on claude-sonnet-5 at 2026-09-30. served version claude-sonnet-5, tree sha256:1c21e55eb09aca89b3d736ac79f8accfc64ddd7853bace5fb5e577a82d794bb9, selection sha256:1d93b514529314b74499196391c68b4b3d1de26853dd9d5ba7f3b455f54ed91d, read set sha256:14520e15ae3a34b9bede8c6702c8b2ab7046cf513c2ba5e03f9fc4628cb2cc31, seed 0, harness 0.5.0. realized cost $60.01, which the adaptive layer reads as the cost of its own instrument. It was planned against taxonomy sha256:4b95fd419a3824634b9644c91b13356ba9b71567f813445913c430e3aa12c13a, and this tree carries another, and the read set of its probes moved since the recording. Each verdict below is what the session did over the documents it met, graded against the expectations this tree declares now, which can differ from the ones the session ran under. headwater probe stale names what moved.

120 events over 4 of the 10 probes this corpus declares, in 120 sessions and 2268 tool calls.

The engine confirmed the taxonomy, that every member of the run identity is present, the membership of every probe named, that no key outside the closed set appears, and that a realized cost was recorded. Present is not confirmed: of the six members a plan fixes before a run, the lock is the one compared here. A lock that differs refuses the file only where this tree composes no read set over its probes, and a read set that differs marks the verdicts and keeps them. headwater probe stale compares the read set against the tree in front of it. It graded nothing: a verdict is a function of this transcript, the expectations these probes declare and a grader version, and headwater probe grade is the verb that holds all three.

The selection this transcript names is not the selection this corpus composes. The transcript names sha256:1d93b514529314b74499196391c68b4b3d1de26853dd9d5ba7f3b455f54ed91d and this corpus composes sha256:50ed5ce43072d9f674a8dc52e1dcad84de4d649e39a77ce22179836188196b09. The transcript's digest is the digest of 4 of the 10 probes this corpus composes, so the run was planned over that part of the selection, or the rest were added after it was recorded. Every verdict below is over that part, and a probe outside it is not a session this run owed. The tree, the seed and the harness above are provenance and nothing compares them.

The read_set digest above covers every probe of the selection and every document one of them examines, by path and content. It is recorded here, and this file names no digest the tree in front of a reader composes. Where that tree composes another one, a single sentence above says that the read set moved, and it moves these bytes once. A digest from that tree would move these bytes on every edit to a document the selection points at, and generate --check holds this file to its bytes, so the staleness of a measurement would stop a merge. headwater probe stale takes the digest and reports which recorded results a change voided.

Graded by grader 0.5.0. A documentation run in the absent arm, on claude-sonnet-5 at served version claude-sonnet-5.

The verdicts

HW-PROBE-a-counted-tombstone-separates-a-withheld-answer-from-an-absent-answer (sufficiency, expects answered) session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r1: satisfied — event 1: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r10: satisfied — event 2: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r11: satisfied — event 3: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r12: satisfied — event 4: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r13: satisfied — event 5: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r14: satisfied — event 6: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r15: satisfied — event 7: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r16: satisfied — event 8: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r17: satisfied — event 9: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r18: satisfied — event 10: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r19: satisfied — event 11: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r2: satisfied — event 12: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r20: satisfied — event 13: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r21: satisfied — event 14: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r22: satisfied — event 15: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r23: satisfied — event 16: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r24: satisfied — event 17: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r25: satisfied — event 18: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r26: satisfied — event 19: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r27: satisfied — event 20: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r28: satisfied — event 21: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r29: satisfied — event 22: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r3: satisfied — event 23: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r30: satisfied — event 24: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r4: satisfied — event 25: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r5: satisfied — event 26: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r6: satisfied — event 27: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r7: satisfied — event 28: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r8: satisfied — event 29: answered absent session L7-documentation-absent-p1-r9: satisfied — event 30: answered absent
HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-event-that-makes-a-document-accepted (sufficiency, expects answered) session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r1: not satisfied — event 31 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r10: not satisfied — event 32 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r11: not satisfied — event 33 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r12: not satisfied — event 34 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r13: not satisfied — event 35 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r14: not satisfied — event 36 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r15: not satisfied — event 37 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r16: not satisfied — event 38 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r17: not satisfied — event 39 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r18: not satisfied — event 40 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r19: not satisfied — event 41 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r2: not satisfied — event 42 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r20: not satisfied — event 43 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r21: not satisfied — event 44 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r22: not satisfied — event 45 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r23: not satisfied — event 46 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r24: not satisfied — event 47 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r25: not satisfied — event 48 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r26: not satisfied — event 49 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r27: not satisfied — event 50 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r28: not satisfied — event 51 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r29: not satisfied — event 52 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r3: not satisfied — event 53 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r30: not satisfied — event 54 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r4: not satisfied — event 55 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r5: not satisfied — event 56 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r6: not satisfied — event 57 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r7: not satisfied — event 58 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r8: not satisfied — event 59 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge session L7-documentation-absent-p2-r9: not satisfied — event 60 answered stamp, and the probe expects merge
HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request (sufficiency, expects answered) session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r1: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r10: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r11: satisfied — event 63: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r12: satisfied — event 64: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r13: not satisfied — event 65 answered draft HW-DR-0052, and the probe expects current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r14: satisfied — event 66: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r15: not satisfied — event 67 answered draft HW-DR-0052, and the probe expects current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r16: satisfied — event 68: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r17: satisfied — event 69: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r18: satisfied — event 70: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r19: not satisfied — event 71 answered draft HW-DR-0052, and the probe expects current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r2: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r20: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r21: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r22: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r23: satisfied — event 76: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r24: satisfied — event 77: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r25: satisfied — event 78: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r26: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r27: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r28: satisfied — event 81: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r29: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r3: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r30: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r4: satisfied — event 85: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r5: not satisfied — event 86 answered draft HW-DR-0052, and the probe expects current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r6: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r7: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r8: satisfied — event 89: answered current HW-DR-0052 session L7-documentation-absent-p3-r9: not satisfied — the session ended with no answer
HW-PROBE-a-session-records-an-unmeasured-claim-in-the-shape-this-corpus-checks (sufficiency, expects patched) session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r1: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r10: satisfied — event 92: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/process/obligations/0228-nothing-states-what-a-sessions-standing-instructions-cost-before-its-first-turn-of-work.md session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r11: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r12: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r13: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r14: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r15: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r16: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r17: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r18: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r19: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r2: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r20: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r21: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r22: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r23: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r24: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r25: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r26: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r27: satisfied — event 110: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/spec/13-open-obligations.md session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r28: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r29: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r3: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r30: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r4: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r5: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r6: satisfied — event 117: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0198-nothing-states-how-much-of-a-session-s-budget-the-standing-instructions-consume-before-work-starts.md session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r7: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r8: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L7-documentation-absent-p4-r9: satisfied — event 120: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0001-nothing-states-how-much-of-a-sessions-budget-claude-md-and-the-doctrine-spend-before-any-work-starts.md

The rate, and the denominator it is over

46 of 120 graded sessions satisfied their expectation: 38.3%, in a 95% interval of 30.1% to 47.3%. The denominator is the graded sessions and never the selected probes. 0 sessions reached no verdict, and a session with no verdict is outside both halves of that fraction.

An interval that overlaps the previous run's is variance and one that does not is drift. This is one arm, so it estimates no effect: an efficacy claim is a comparison of two results, and the arm each one recorded is on it.

The comparisons this arm takes part in

What the documents change. The treated arm is the campaign absent arm and the control is the documentation absent arm. Both removed the governance, and only the control removed docs/, so this is the effect of the documents alone (spec 5).

treated, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-09-30-campaign-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency.md: 114 of 119 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 95.8%, in a 95% interval of 90.5% to 98.2%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.
control, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-09-30-documentation-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency.md: 46 of 120 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 38.3%, in a 95% interval of 30.1% to 47.3%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.

The difference is +57.5 points, in a 95% Newcombe interval of +47.1 points to +66.0 points. The interval is above zero, so the treated arm satisfied more often at the 5% level.

What the documents and the governance change together. The treated arm is a present arm and the control is the documentation absent arm.

treated, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-09-30-campaign-tier-present-arm-sufficiency.md: 114 of 119 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 95.8%, in a 95% interval of 90.5% to 98.2%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.
control, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-09-30-documentation-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency.md: 46 of 120 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 38.3%, in a 95% interval of 30.1% to 47.3%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.