Rendered from docs/probe-results/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency-four-probes.md in the Headwater corpus. Every document on this half of the site is typed by the taxonomy the descriptor names: corpus.json.

The result of docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency-four-probes.md

A probe result is a function of committed inputs and of nothing else: the transcript at docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency-four-probes.md and the state it stands at, the expectations the probes it names declare, the version of the grader that evaluated them, and for a compared arm the result of the other arm. Fetch those and this file comes back.

The run this transcript recorded

A campaign run in the absent arm, on claude-sonnet-5 at 2026-10-03. served version claude-sonnet-5, tree sha256:81d5f62acb289022175d192df0a61faf5f71eb4b79e8dd1f4efae4532ebdd916, selection sha256:e259547ce18ab03325c4ba1efa9d0db2c6dafa32e2c03120bd9572a00c12077f, read set sha256:896882707d477bcbe0d695d228f7d2396b93bc66244dcc478733307bb54c24cb, seed 0, harness 0.5.0. realized cost $54.91, which the adaptive layer reads as the cost of its own instrument.

120 events over 4 probes, in 120 sessions and 1847 tool calls.

The engine confirmed the taxonomy, that every member of the run identity is present, the membership of every probe named, that no key outside the closed set appears, and that a realized cost was recorded. Present is not confirmed. This page names the lock, the selection and the read set the transcript recorded, and it compares none of them with the tree in front of a reader. headwater generate and headwater probe stale name what moved since the recording, and neither one fails for it. It graded nothing: a verdict is a function of this transcript, the expectations these probes declare and a grader version, and headwater probe grade is the verb that holds all three.

The selection this transcript names is sha256:e259547ce18ab03325c4ba1efa9d0db2c6dafa32e2c03120bd9572a00c12077f, and the probes graded below are the probes it was planned over, as this corpus declares them now. A probe added to this corpus after the recording is not a session this run owed. The tree, the seed and the harness above are provenance and nothing compares them.

The read_set digest above covers every probe of the selection and every document one of them examines, by path and content. This file names it as provenance and compares it with nothing, and the same holds for the lock and the selection: an edit to a document, a new probe or a moved lock leaves these bytes alone. headwater generate names each result whose recorded lock, read set or selection moved, and headwater probe stale takes the digest and reports which recorded results a change voided. Neither one fails for it.

Graded by grader 0.5.0. A campaign run in the absent arm, on claude-sonnet-5 at served version claude-sonnet-5.

The verdicts

  • HW-PROBE-a-counted-tombstone-separates-a-withheld-answer-from-an-absent-answer (sufficiency, expects answered) session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r1: satisfied — event 1: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r10: satisfied — event 2: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r11: satisfied — event 3: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r12: satisfied — event 4: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r13: satisfied — event 5: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r14: satisfied — event 6: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r15: satisfied — event 7: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r16: satisfied — event 8: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r17: satisfied — event 9: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r18: satisfied — event 10: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r19: satisfied — event 11: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r2: satisfied — event 12: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r20: satisfied — event 13: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r21: satisfied — event 14: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r22: satisfied — event 15: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r23: satisfied — event 16: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r24: satisfied — event 17: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r25: satisfied — event 18: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r26: satisfied — event 19: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r27: satisfied — event 20: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r28: satisfied — event 21: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r29: satisfied — event 22: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r3: satisfied — event 23: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r30: satisfied — event 24: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r4: satisfied — event 25: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r5: satisfied — event 26: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r6: satisfied — event 27: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r7: satisfied — event 28: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r8: satisfied — event 29: answered absent session L2-campaign-absent-p1-r9: satisfied — event 30: answered absent
  • HW-PROBE-a-session-follows-a-citation-from-one-record-to-the-next (sufficiency, expects answered) session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r1: satisfied — event 31: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r10: satisfied — event 32: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r11: satisfied — event 33: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r12: satisfied — event 34: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r13: satisfied — event 35: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r14: satisfied — event 36: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r15: satisfied — event 37: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r16: satisfied — event 38: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r17: satisfied — event 39: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r18: satisfied — event 40: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r19: satisfied — event 41: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r2: satisfied — event 42: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r20: satisfied — event 43: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r21: satisfied — event 44: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r22: satisfied — event 45: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r23: satisfied — event 46: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r24: satisfied — event 47: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r25: satisfied — event 48: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r26: satisfied — event 49: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r27: satisfied — event 50: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r28: satisfied — event 51: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r29: satisfied — event 52: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r3: satisfied — event 53: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r30: satisfied — event 54: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r4: satisfied — event 55: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r5: satisfied — event 56: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r6: satisfied — event 57: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r7: satisfied — event 58: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r8: satisfied — event 59: answered HW-DR-0097 session L2-campaign-absent-p2-r9: satisfied — event 60: answered HW-DR-0097
  • HW-PROBE-a-session-records-an-unmeasured-claim-in-the-shape-this-corpus-checks (sufficiency, expects patched) session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r1: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r10: satisfied — event 62: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/process/obligations/0237-the-standing-instructions-of-a-session-consume-part-of-its-budget-before-any-work-starts.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r11: satisfied — event 63: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/process/obligations/0237-the-doctrine-a-parent-carries-is-capped-at-600-tokens-and-the-standing-instructions-a-session-reads-before-it-are-not.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r12: satisfied — event 64: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/process/obligations/0237-nothing-states-what-share-of-a-session-s-budget-claude-md-spends-before-any-work-starts.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r13: satisfied — event 65: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/process/obligations/0237-the-7225-token-cost-claude-md-measured-is-never-read-against-a-sessions-budget.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r14: satisfied — event 66: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/process/obligations/0237-this-repository-s-standing-instructions-have-no-measured-cost-before-work-begins.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r15: satisfied — event 67: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-standing-context-costs-7225-tokens-before-the-first-turn-and-nothing-prices-that-against-a-sessions-cents-budget.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r16: satisfied — event 68: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-claude-md-is-paid-for-on-every-dispatch-and-nothing-states-the-price.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r17: satisfied — event 69: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/process/obligations/0237-nothing-prices-the-standing-instructions-a-session-reads-before-its-first-turn-of-work.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r18: satisfied — event 70: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-the-standing-instructions-spend-a-fraction-of-every-session-s-budget-that-nothing-here-states.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r19: satisfied — event 71: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-spec-5-measures-the-standing-context-cost-in-tokens-and-no-document-reads-it-against-a-sessions-budget.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r2: satisfied — event 72: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-the-standing-instructions-a-session-reads-before-its-first-tool-call-carry-no-stated-cost.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r20: satisfied — event 73: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-the-standing-context-carries-no-declared-budget-and-its-one-measured-cost-is-a-snapshot-from-2026-09-30.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r21: satisfied — event 74: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/process/obligations/0237-nothing-states-what-a-sessions-standing-instructions-cost-before-work-starts.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r22: satisfied — event 75: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-the-counterfactual-campaign-prices-what-the-governance-layer-changes-and-never-what-loading-it-costs-before-a-session-starts.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r23: satisfied — event 76: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/process/obligations/0237-claude-md-loads-into-every-dispatch-and-nothing-states-what-it-costs-against-a-sessions-budget.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r24: satisfied — event 77: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-nothing-states-how-much-of-a-session-s-budget-the-standing-instructions-of-this-repository-consume-before-any-work-starts.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r25: satisfied — event 78: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-the-standing-context-cost-is-priced-in-tokens-once-and-nothing-prices-it-against-a-sessions-dollar-budget.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r26: satisfied — event 79: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-no-instrument-measures-what-a-session-s-standing-instructions-cost-before-the-capture-cost-clock-starts.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r27: satisfied — event 80: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/process/obligations/0237-the-standing-instructions-a-session-reads-before-any-work-starts-carry-no-stated-cost-against-its-budget.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r28: satisfied — event 81: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-nothing-states-what-this-repositorys-standing-instructions-cost-a-session-before-work-starts.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r29: satisfied — event 82: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-nothing-states-what-a-sessions-standing-instructions-cost-before-work-starts.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r3: satisfied — event 83: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-the-standing-instruction-cost-is-a-token-sample-and-nothing-prices-it-against-a-session-s-dollar-budget.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r30: satisfied — event 84: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-claude-md-spends-a-sessions-budget-before-the-session-reads-a-document-and-nothing-states-the-figure.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r4: satisfied — event 85: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-the-always-on-prompt-is-priced-in-tokens-once-and-nothing-states-its-share-of-a-session-s-budget.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r5: satisfied — event 86: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/process/obligations/0237-the-standing-instructions-of-this-repository-spend-an-unstated-share-of-a-sessions-budget-before-any-work-starts.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r6: satisfied — event 87: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-nothing-states-how-much-of-a-sessions-budget-the-standing-instructions-of-this-repository-consume-before-work-starts.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r7: satisfied — event 88: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-the-measured-claude-md-cost-is-tokens-against-a-baseline-arm-and-no-document-reads-it-as-a-fraction-of-a-sessions-own-budget.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r8: satisfied — event 89: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/obligations/0237-a-session-s-budget-has-no-reading-of-its-own-standing-instructions-cost.md session L2-campaign-absent-p3-r9: satisfied — event 90: section.required.missing reported nothing over docs/process/obligations/0237-agents-md-spends-a-sessions-plan-window-budget-before-its-first-turn-and-nothing-prices-that-spend.md
  • HW-PROBE-a-session-records-which-obligation-an-evaluation-discharged (sufficiency, expects patched) session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r10: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r11: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r12: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r13: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r14: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r15: satisfied — event 97: relation.reciprocity.missing reported nothing over docs/evaluations/governs-edges-what-an-anchor-reaches-what-covers-it-when-it-ages-and-where-a-session-meets-it.md session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r16: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r17: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r18: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r19: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r2: satisfied — event 102: relation.reciprocity.missing reported nothing over docs/evaluations/governs-edges-what-an-anchor-reaches-what-covers-it-when-it-ages-and-where-a-session-meets-it.md session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r20: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r21: satisfied — event 104: relation.reciprocity.missing reported nothing over docs/evaluations/governs-edges-what-an-anchor-reaches-what-covers-it-when-it-ages-and-where-a-session-meets-it.md session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r22: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r23: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r24: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r25: satisfied — event 108: relation.reciprocity.missing reported nothing over docs/evaluations/governs-edges-what-an-anchor-reaches-what-covers-it-when-it-ages-and-where-a-session-meets-it.md session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r26: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r27: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r28: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r29: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r3: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r30: satisfied — event 114: relation.reciprocity.missing reported nothing over docs/evaluations/governs-edges-what-an-anchor-reaches-what-covers-it-when-it-ages-and-where-a-session-meets-it.md session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r4: satisfied — event 115: relation.reciprocity.missing reported nothing over docs/evaluations/governs-edges-what-an-anchor-reaches-what-covers-it-when-it-ages-and-where-a-session-meets-it.md session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r5: not satisfied — the session produced no artifact, so the oracle had nothing to read session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r6: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r7: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r8: not satisfied — relation.reciprocity.missing reported over each of the 1 produced artifact session L2-campaign-absent-p4-r9: satisfied — event 120: relation.reciprocity.missing reported nothing over docs/evaluations/governs-edges-what-an-anchor-reaches-what-covers-it-when-it-ages-and-where-a-session-meets-it.md

The rate, and the denominator it is over

96 of 120 graded sessions satisfied their expectation: 80.0%, in a 95% interval of 72.0% to 86.2%. The denominator is the graded sessions and never the selected probes. 0 sessions reached no verdict, and a session with no verdict is outside both halves of that fraction.

An interval that overlaps the previous run's is variance and one that does not is drift. This is one arm, so it estimates no effect: an efficacy claim is a comparison of two results, and the arm each one recorded is on it.

The comparisons this arm takes part in

What the governance changes. The treated arm is the campaign present arm and the control is the campaign absent arm, which removed the paths the campaign tier's ablation names and kept docs/.

  • treated, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-present-arm-sufficiency-four-probes.md: 114 of 120 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 95.0%, in a 95% interval of 89.5% to 97.7%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.
  • control, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency-four-probes.md: 96 of 120 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 80.0%, in a 95% interval of 72.0% to 86.2%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.

The difference is +15.0 points, in a 95% Newcombe interval of +6.7 points to +23.5 points. The interval is above zero, so the treated arm satisfied more often at the 5% level.

What the documents change. The treated arm is the campaign absent arm and the control is the documentation absent arm. Both removed the governance, and only the control removed docs/, so this is the effect of the documents alone (spec 5).

  • treated, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-campaign-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency-four-probes.md: 96 of 120 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 80.0%, in a 95% interval of 72.0% to 86.2%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.
  • control, docs/probe-runs/campaign-of-2026-10-03-documentation-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency-four-probes.md: 43 of 120 graded sessions satisfied their expectation, 35.8%, in a 95% interval of 27.8% to 44.7%. 0 sessions refused by the session itself.

The difference is +44.2 points, in a 95% Newcombe interval of +32.2 points to +54.3 points. The interval is above zero, so the treated arm satisfied more often at the 5% level.