Rendered from docs/probe-runs/second-campaign-pilot-of-2026-09-28-campaign-tier-absent-arm-sufficiency.md in the Headwater corpus. Every document on this half of the site is typed by the taxonomy the descriptor names: corpus.json.

Second campaign pilot of 2026-09-28, campaign tier, absent arm, sufficiency

Run identity

model: claude-sonnet-5
served_version: claude-sonnet-5
tree: sha256:d9aad3464b048f92f47d8c5779bffee5b728699fc710d7e0af2c66363e9b51b0
lock: sha256:62144f6124525b73c49768d80ccdc41d7324fff0b39836367db4db85aa502cb8
selection: sha256:1d93b514529314b74499196391c68b4b3d1de26853dd9d5ba7f3b455f54ed91d
read_set: sha256:7a76c0b28551210b534705cf2b69216c68b6543dba250fc82fb24861e4949f46
seed: 0
harness: 0.4.0
tier: campaign
arm: absent
at: 2026-09-28
cost_cents: 169

This is a second pilot and not the campaign. tools/probe/campaign.sh recorded it on 2026-09-28 at one repetition per probe, to test the three changes the owner ruled on #980 after the first pilot. First, every workspace of both arms carries the built headwater, so the intent hook can run in a present-arm session. Second, a closed-set word alone on the final line is the answer. Third, the seal removes HW-OBL-0198, the answer key of the patched probe. No comparison pools it with the full run, and no obligation is restated on it.

One batch, one tree. Every session ran in a fresh copy of one git archive of commit ed9e61a7, with the engine that commit builds, in one order that seed 981 shuffled, four at a time, on claude-sonnet-5 with a cap of 60 turns. Each workspace lost the instrument, every record under docs/ that names a probe of the batch, and the answer keys of those probes. Each absent workspace also lost its tier's ablation.

This transcript stands at deprecated, and the reason is the lock it pins. The digest above is the lock of the tree that these pilot sessions met. The taxonomy change that declared the subsystem_spec kind on 2026-09-28 moved that lock, and the first of the five confirmations refused this recording until #1292. Since #1292, that confirmation reads a transcript with a moved lock when the read set of its probes did not move. The read set of this selection did not move, so the result derived from it carries verdicts again. The transcript stays at deprecated because it is a pilot. No comparison pools it with the full run, and a reader may take no rate from it as a measurement. The full campaign batch records its own sessions.

Events

- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-counted-tombstone-separates-a-withheld-answer-from-an-absent-answer"
  session: "L2-campaign-absent-p1-r1"
  calls:
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"find /home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p1-r1/docs -type f | head -200\",\"description\":\"List files under docs directory\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"grep -ril \\\"amber\\\" docs/ ; echo \\\"---recovery word---\\\"; grep -ril \\\"recovery word\\\" docs/; echo \\\"---tombstone---\\\"; grep -ril \\\"tombstone\\\" docs/\",\"description\":\"Search docs for amber, recovery word, and tombstone mentions\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"echo \\\"---recovery---\\\"; grep -ril \\\"recovery\\\" docs/; echo \\\"---counted tombstone---\\\"; grep -rn \\\"counted\\\" docs/ | grep -i tomb; echo \\\"---tombstone count---\\\"; grep -rn -i \\\"tombstone\\\" docs/**/*.md 2>/dev/null | head -80\",\"description\":\"Search docs for recovery and counted tombstone mentions\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"grep -ril \\\"amber\\\" docs/ 2>/dev/null; echo \\\"done: $?\\\"; find docs -iname \\\"*amber*\\\"; echo \\\"search for 'recovery word' exact\\\"; grep -rn \\\"recovery word\\\" docs/ 2>/dev/null\",\"description\":\"Double check for amber anywhere in docs including filenames\"}"
      result: ""
  produced: []
  answer: "absent"
- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-event-that-makes-a-document-accepted"
  session: "L2-campaign-absent-p2-r1"
  calls:
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"grep -rl \\\"accepted_by\\\" . 2>/dev/null\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Read"
      argument: "/home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p2-r1/docs/decisions/0034-q34-whether-acceptance-means-merged-to-main-and-what-an-agent-may-write-before-that.md"
      result: "sha256:6de683b661a06755c335d85abbf92235bf188d5832a9ef657f7aa8b66fedf1d4"
    - tool: "Read"
      argument: "/home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p2-r1/docs/obligations/0108-an-agent-writes-the-acceptance-stamp-of-every-document-in-this-corpus.md"
      result: "sha256:1016178b65cdeac2092fe0e6f36c6510a46783d5173c72ead2ec10dcbde04330"
  produced: []
  answer: "merge"
- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request"
  session: "L2-campaign-absent-p3-r1"
  calls: []
  produced: []
  answer: "current"
- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-records-an-unmeasured-claim-in-the-shape-this-corpus-checks"
  session: "L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1"
  calls:
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"ls -la /home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1/ 2>&1\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"echo \\\"--- CLAUDE.md exists? ---\\\"; ls -la CLAUDE.md 2>&1; echo \\\"--- searching for debt/todo/backlog files ---\\\"; find . -maxdepth 3 -iname \\\"*todo*\\\" -o -iname \\\"*debt*\\\" -o -iname \\\"*backlog*\\\" -o -iname \\\"*known_issues*\\\" -o -iname \\\"*owe*\\\" 2>/dev/null | grep -v node_modules; echo \\\"--- repo name hint ---\\\"; head -30 README.md\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"ls docs/obligations/ | sort\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Read"
      argument: "/home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1/docs/obligations/README.md"
      result: "sha256:77f915e091292a6f00cf98516edb3cc61d7c2fb07efc20d258c63e852f749aa2"
    - tool: "Read"
      argument: "/home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1/docs/obligations/0222-ten-rules-of-the-editions-ledger-have-one-recorded-corpus-so-a-rule-change-blessed-with-an-edit-to-that-corpus-passes.md"
      result: "sha256:5cabeb4143ff124d566f80b4631d1d5a2fcb58dbb8c2842560e1b4b4f93e6a63"
    - tool: "Read"
      argument: "/home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1/AGENTS.md"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"ls -la CLAUDE.md AGENTS.md 2>&1; echo \\\"---\\\"; find . -maxdepth 2 -iname \\\"CLAUDE.md\\\" 2>&1; find . -iname \\\"CLAUDE.md\\\" 2>&1 | head -20\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"grep -i claude .gitignore; echo \\\"---.codex---\\\"; ls -la .codex; echo \\\"---search repo for standing instructions text---\\\"; grep -ril \\\"standing instructions\\\" . 2>/dev/null; grep -ril \\\"context budget\\\\|token budget\\\\|session budget\\\" . 2>/dev/null\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"cd /home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1/docs/obligations && ls -la | head -5; echo \\\"total files:\\\"; ls *.md | wc -l; echo \\\"--- highest numbers ---\\\"; ls *.md | sort | tail -15; echo \\\"--- checking for gaps 0197-0222 ---\\\"; for n in $(seq -w 190 222); do f=$(ls | grep \\\"^0$n-\\\" 2>/dev/null); if [ -z \\\"$f\\\" ]; then echo \\\"MISSING: 0$n\\\"; fi; done\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"ls | grep -E \\\"^000[5]|^0010|^0013|^0014\\\" ; echo \\\"---checking taxonomy-source for a duplicate copy---\\\"; find /home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1 -path \\\"*/obligations/*0005*\\\" 2>/dev/null\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"cd /home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1 && grep -n -i \\\"standing instructions\\\" docs/spec/glossary.md docs/spec/02-taxonomy-model.md docs/evaluations/theoretical-foundations.md docs/reviews/core-concepts-review-findings.md docs/taxonomies/brd-prd/doctrine.md docs/taxonomies/standards-spec/doctrine.md 2>/dev/null\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"cd /home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1 && grep -n \\\"standing instructions\\\" docs/spec/glossary.md docs/spec/02-taxonomy-model.md docs/evaluations/theoretical-foundations.md docs/reviews/core-concepts-review-findings.md docs/taxonomies/brd-prd/doctrine.md docs/taxonomies/standards-spec/doctrine.md docs/evaluations/shacl-worked-example.md\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"cd /home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1 && grep -rn \\\"standing instructions\\\" docs/ 2>/dev/null\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"cd /home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1 && grep -rn \\\"0219\\\\|HW-OBL-0219\\\" --include=\\\"*.md\\\" . 2>/dev/null; echo \\\"---which headwater binary---\\\"; which headwater 2>&1; echo \\\"---check .headwater or taxonomy lock for id counters---\\\"; find . -iname \\\"*.lock\\\" -o -iname \\\"*headwater.toml*\\\" 2>/dev/null | head; echo \\\"--- check most recent obligations for filed-together pattern, e.g. 0203, 0208 multi-item ---\\\"; sed -n '1,40p' docs/obligations/0203-three-small-run-tooling-gaps-from-run-20260922-1121-filed-together.md\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"cat .gitignore | grep -n -B2 -A2 -i \\\"claude\\\\|agents\\\"\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"grep -n \\\"CLAUDE.md\\\\|AGENTS.md\\\\|context budget\\\\|token budget\\\\|before any work\\\\|session budget\\\" DEVELOPING.md | head -50\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"grep -rn \\\"byte ceiling\\\\|byte_ceiling\\\\|BYTE_CEILING\\\\|context window\\\\|context budget\\\" --include=\\\"*.md\\\" --include=\\\"*.sh\\\" --include=\\\"*.rs\\\" . 2>/dev/null | head -40\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"find docs/spec -iname \\\"*13*\\\"; echo \\\"---\\\"; grep -rn \\\"0197\\\\|0198\\\\|0219\\\" docs/ 2>/dev/null | grep -v \\\"Binary\\\"\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"find . -path \\\"*/templates/*obligation*\\\" -o -iname \\\"*obligation*template*\\\" 2>/dev/null | grep -v docs/obligations; echo \\\"---overlay retired terms---\\\"; find . -iname \\\"overlay.yml\\\" 2>/dev/null; echo \\\"---\\\"; grep -rn \\\"waiting_on\\\" taxonomy-source/ 2>/dev/null | head -20\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Read"
      argument: "/home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1/docs/taxonomies/decision-record/templates/obligation_record.md"
      result: "sha256:f1a0c17d6498ae281c9c2a224bcc6a0cc2ccadc427b431f12c5e0573511ab110"
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"find taxonomy-source -iname \\\"*.yml\\\" | xargs grep -ln \\\"waiting_on\\\" 2>/dev/null\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Read"
      argument: "/home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1/docs/obligations/0221-subagents-read-skills-from-the-shared-checkout-and-a-worktree-isolated-integrator-cannot-fast-forward-it-after-a-merge.md"
      result: "sha256:c13ec6716be81f8c743270094988380d5ffc3e7ce90793e438fde3a9d3171d92"
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"find docs/spec -iname \\\"*ai-integration*\\\"; grep -n \\\"context budget\\\\|dispatch\\\\|session\\\" docs/spec/05-ai-integration.md 2>/dev/null | head -40\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"grep -rn \\\"byte ceiling\\\\|ceiling\\\" --include=\\\"*.rs\\\" --include=\\\"*.sh\\\" --include=\\\"*.md\\\" . 2>/dev/null | grep -vi \\\"docs/obligations\\\" | head -30\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"cd /home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1/docs/obligations && grep -h \\\"^waiting_on:\\\" *.md | sort | uniq -c\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"grep -A1 \\\"^---$\\\" 0100-the-size-of-a-committed-snapshot-with-full-requirement-text.md | head -3; grep \\\"waiting_on\\\" 0100-the-size-of-a-committed-snapshot-with-full-requirement-text.md; echo \\\"---\\\"; sed -n '1,40p' 0100-the-size-of-a-committed-snapshot-with-full-requirement-text.md\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"for f in $(grep -l \\\"^waiting_on: measurement\\\" *.md | head -3); do echo \\\"=== $f ===\\\"; sed -n '1,30p' \\\"$f\\\"; echo; done\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Read"
      argument: "/home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1/docs/spec/05-ai-integration.md"
      result: "sha256:0293231ed221ab41d3608df090c0e3c8ebad4ace48f8f46101cc6da13cdfc116"
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"cd /home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1 && grep -n \\\"^#### \\\\|^### \\\\|^## \\\" docs/spec/05-ai-integration.md | sed -n '1,60p'\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"cd /home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1/docs/obligations && grep -l \\\"DEVELOPING.md\\\" *.md | head -3; grep -h \\\"DEVELOPING.md\\\" *.md | head -5\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"grep -ho \\\"\\\\[[^]]*\\\\](\\\\.\\\\./\\\\.\\\\./DEVELOPING.md[^)]*)\\\" *.md | head -5\"}"
      result: ""
    - tool: "Read"
      argument: "/home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1/docs/spec/05-ai-integration.md"
      result: "sha256:0293231ed221ab41d3608df090c0e3c8ebad4ace48f8f46101cc6da13cdfc116"
    - tool: "Write"
      argument: "/home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1/docs/obligations/0223-nothing-states-how-much-of-a-sessions-budget-the-standing-instructions-of-this-repository-spend-before-any-work-starts.md"
      result: "sha256:f00844408301676ae6ab66326eda8ec92f062bbdf1aa7586e11fdb00cdc5e2e4"
    - tool: "Bash"
      argument: "{\"command\":\"cd /home/james/probe-batches/980-pilot2-2026-09-28/ws/L2-campaign-absent-p4-r1 && ls docs/decisions/0076-a-probe-budget-prices-a-run-identity-fixed-before-the-run-and-a-committed-transcript-and-a-sweep-has-neither.md && ls DEVELOPING.md && ls docs/spec/05-ai-integration.md && echo OK\"}"
      result: ""
  produced:
    - path: "docs/obligations/0223-nothing-states-how-much-of-a-sessions-budget-the-standing-instructions-of-this-repository-spend-before-any-work-starts.md"
      result: "sha256:f00844408301676ae6ab66326eda8ec92f062bbdf1aa7586e11fdb00cdc5e2e4"
      cites:
        - "HW-DR-0076"
        - "HW-OBL-0223"
      findings:
        - "identifier.claim.stale"
        - "language.controlled.not_met"
  answer: null