Rendered from docs/probe-runs/status-probe-pilot-of-2026-09-29-campaign-tier-present-arm-sufficiency.md in the Headwater corpus. Every document on this half of the site is typed by the taxonomy the descriptor names: corpus.json.

Status probe pilot of 2026-09-29, campaign tier, present arm, sufficiency

Run identity

model: claude-sonnet-5
served_version: claude-sonnet-5
tree: sha256:7c8d9c1568c93bd1747f64dbda46742cf0c82d9e27b795aa2302de8bba2433fd
lock: sha256:badb09836f1099bd2d72472dc6370ac7fa0d14e93001264d38a69b5e59210e44
selection: sha256:002ab25221c821cea88b42dbbdb3e831304d41c12788a9557d7a1da2a01efa17
read_set: sha256:c97c613e433de3010d256895bc70c07bca1047d280d23f2dd841dc7712e0f2b7
seed: 0
harness: 0.4.1
tier: campaign
arm: present
at: 2026-09-29
cost_cents: 98

This is a pilot of one probe and not the campaign. tools/probe/campaign.sh recorded it on 2026-09-29 for clause 4 of #1294. It ran the probe HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request alone, at 10 repetitions per arm, after the changes to the authoring skill, to the summary of HW-DR-0052 and to the probe itself had merged. The owner ruled on #1294 on 2026-09-28 that this pilot runs after those changes, at no more than 10 repetitions per arm. No comparison pools it with the campaign of 2026-09-28, because the probe and its read set moved between the two.

One batch, one tree. Every session ran in a fresh copy of one git archive of commit d3b1b16e, with the engine that commit builds, in one order that seed 980 shuffled, four at a time, on claude-sonnet-5 with a cap of 60 turns. Each workspace lost the instrument, every record under docs/ that names the probe, and its answer key. Each absent workspace also lost the ablation of the campaign tier. The seed in the identity above is the plan's seed, and the shuffle seed is not a member of the identity.

Events

- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request"
  session: "L1-campaign-present-p1-r1"
  calls: []
  produced: []
  answer: "current HW-DR-0052"
- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request"
  session: "L1-campaign-present-p1-r10"
  calls: []
  produced: []
  answer: "current HW-DR-0052"
- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request"
  session: "L1-campaign-present-p1-r2"
  calls: []
  produced: []
  answer: "current HW-DR-0052"
- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request"
  session: "L1-campaign-present-p1-r3"
  calls: []
  produced: []
  answer: "current HW-DR-0052"
- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request"
  session: "L1-campaign-present-p1-r4"
  calls: []
  produced: []
  answer: "current HW-DR-0052"
- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request"
  session: "L1-campaign-present-p1-r5"
  calls: []
  produced: []
  answer: "current HW-DR-0052"
- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request"
  session: "L1-campaign-present-p1-r6"
  calls: []
  produced: []
  answer: "current HW-DR-0052"
- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request"
  session: "L1-campaign-present-p1-r7"
  calls: []
  produced: []
  answer: "current HW-DR-0052"
- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request"
  session: "L1-campaign-present-p1-r8"
  calls: []
  produced: []
  answer: "current HW-DR-0052"
- probe: "HW-PROBE-a-session-names-the-status-a-settled-decision-carries-in-its-pull-request"
  session: "L1-campaign-present-p1-r9"
  calls: []
  produced: []
  answer: "current HW-DR-0052"